Week 14: NFL picks with caddies Joe Skovron, Justin York and Mark Urbanek
There are plenty of great divisional match ups for Week 14 of NFL season.
How will the games play out?
Here’s a closer look at five, key match ups by three of our favorite caddie prognosticators in Joe Skovron, Justin York and Mark Urbanek…
NY Giants at Washington
Spread: Giants -3.5
Skovron’s Pick: Washington
Why: Like many of the games on here each week, this is a game I wouldn’t touch. This spread has swung five points the other way with Washington down to their third-string QB and people jumping on the Giants. The Giants have some injuries as well with Landon Collins heading to IR. The Giants have been hot ATS and the Redskins have been terrible ATS the last five games. I see value in the line and will take the points.
York’s Pick: New York
Why: MARK SANCHEZ.
Urbanek’s Pick: New York
Why: I’ve been a Jets fan all of my life so I’ve seen this Sanchez show before. MAYBE if he’d been with the Skins all year and knew the playbook they’d have a chance with their above average D… Giants are coming in hot and actually believe they have a playoff chance in that horrid division. G-men roll. NY 27, DC 13.
New England at Miami
Spread: New England -7.5
Skovron’s Pick: New England
Why: Well, if you fade the public and look for reverse line movement like me, this is a Miami bet. The problem is that almost every week is a bet against New England with that system. I read a stat recently that if you had bet NE every game for the last 10+ years you are up plenty of units. This would be another “no touch” game for me but I’m going to take New England here. They are smelling the playoffs and would really like to not have to go through KC to get to the Super Bowl. I think they beat Miami easily.
York’s Pick: New England
Why: The Patriots have dominated this rivalry over the years. Although banged up and without a fully healthy Gronk, New England should have no problems out scoring their AFC East rival.
Urbanek’s Pick: Miami
Why: If I were a gambling man, this would be my big bet of the week. Miami plays New England tough at home and with Tannehill back under center they can move the ball almost like a NFL team. It’ll be a loss but they’ll keep it tight. NE 31, Miami 27.
Baltimore at Kansas City
Spread: Kansas City -6.5
Skovron’s Pick: KC
Why: This is another game with reverse line movement. If I was to actually bet this game the only side I would look at would be Baltimore. With that said, this is the No. 1 scoring offense and the No. 1 scoring defense facing off. These days, the offenses seem to win those match ups more often. This Lamar Jackson experiment is interesting and could cause problems for the Chiefs D but unless the Ravens get multiple turnovers or a defensive score, I just don’t see it. As a Charger fan, I’d love to see Baltimore win this game but I think KC covers at home on the strength of the passing game.
York’s Pick: Baltimore
Why: It was a tough loss for the Chiefs losing their star running back for the season last week. The offense still looked pretty good behind their stud QB Mahomes, but will fail to cover the touchdown spread against the revved up Baltimore Ravens.
Urbanek’s Pick: Baltimore
Why: I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I see Jackson giving KC fits running the ball. With a decent time of possession and a top tier D, the Ravens might pull this off. I’ll take KC to win but it won’t be convincing. Ravens 24, KC 29.
Philadelphia at Dallas
Spread: Dallas -3.5
Skovron’s Pick: Philadelphia
Why: This should be a good one. Dallas comes in on a 4-game winning streak and is 4-0 ATS in those games. Their defense looked amazing the last game I got to watch and I think Jaylon Smith is one of the best stories in football. Philly looks like they might have gotten their season back on track but it’s hard to tell because the Giants and a beat up Skins team aren’t exactly the best tests. Despite Cooper providing a spark for the Dallas offense and those linebackers flying around on D, I think Philly knows how big this one is and gets it done, or at least keeps it inside the spread.
York’s Pick: Dallas
Why: The Eagles still aren’t at full throttle due to injuries on both sides of the ball. Dallas is coming off a big win by the heavy NFC-favorite Saints. The will look to keep this money going against a soft Philly team at home.
Urbanek’s Pick: Dallas
Why: The D in Dallas is coming together nicely late in the season and with Dak finally making some good decisions, I’ll take the Boys at home. Philly can’t stop a nosebleed on D and that will continue with a face full of Zeke. Philly 17, Dallas 24.
LA Rams at Chicago Bears
Spread: LA -3
Skovron’s Pick: Bears
Why: This one is simply the numbers for me. Heavy majority of public on Rams, reverse line movement = a Bears bet for me. As good as the Rams are they are 5-5-2 ATS so far this year, while the Bears are 8-4. A Trubisky return is looking likely which makes me feel better about this as well. I’d much rather have that initial line that the sharps got at 4 or 4.5 but I’ll take the 3 points and DA BEARS.
York’s Pick: LA
Why: Trubisky is still on the fence to play this week as they look to stop the league’s best team at home. The Rams had a challenging game last week against the Lions but pulled away at the end in championship fashion. The Rams will continue this into the tough environment of the Chicago Bears and will challenge the Khalil Mack-led Bears D. Late cover by the Rams, but a cover indeed.
Urbanek’s Pick: Chicago
Why: Fascinating matchup of top tier D vs top tier O in this one. I expect this to be more of a shootout and with Trubisky back in play the Bears can keep up. Rams D is beatable with some sort of pass protection. Cohen will be the difference with the screen game. Defining game for Chicago to announce their candidacy for Super Bowl contenders. LA 31, Chicago 34.